Today, in a public rejection of the Trump Administration’s proposed changes to 2030 Census testing, Census Quality Reinforcement Task Force members and other census experts submitted comments to the Commerce Department criticizing its plans to use scientifically invalid methods that waste time and money. Census testing allows the Census Bureau to evaluate its processes and technology, find better methods to reach historically undercounted populations, and identify ways to reduce costs. This test ignores the science, tells us nothing about the official 2030 census, and sets the Census Bureau up for failure.
A selection of comments with organizational sign-ons can be found below:
Census Quality Reinforcement Task Force
Individuals who Served on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2030 Census Advisory Committee
Population Association of America’s Sign-on Letter
Some of the concerning changes
Refusing to test the official questions. Whether this is a reflection of its intention to add a citizenship question to the 2030 census or is just another instance of its ignorance about data, science, and how the federal government works, it renders the operational testing moot. The administration plans to test using American Community Survey (ACS) questions instead of the same set of questions that would be asked in the decennial census. The ACS is much longer, which means fewer people will respond, giving a skewed idea of whether respondents will forgo the real census.
Shuttering testing sites in rural and tribal communities. 4 out of 6 testing sites have been cut, including those proposed to be in rural communities and tribal communities. That means no testing in areas with limited cell phone service or in areas that lack mailing addresses. This threatens the Census Bureau’s ability to increase the accuracy of counts in historically undercounted communities.
Cutting internet self-response for every language but English. The 2020 Census was available in Spanish, Chinese (Simplified), Vietnamese, Korean, Russian, Arabic, Tagalog, Polish, French, Haitian Creole, Portuguese, and Japanese – necessitating testing in these languages. These cuts will escalate costs by forcing in-field staff to visit more homes.
Threatening privacy and raising costs by using unofficial enumerators – Concerningly, while official enumerators take an oath upon joining the Census Bureau to protect people’s confidentiality (Title 13), USPS workers currently cannot (Title 39). The Census Bureau has not identified how privacy protections will be addressed. And at a time when the Census Bureau is being hammered to reduce its costs, the administration is redundantly exploring using USPS letter carriers, who have already been proven to cost more.
Robust, scientifically accurate testing is essential to ensure a complete, credible count for the nation’s statistical foundation. Continuing with this test, as currently proposed, will abandon millions of people, rendering them invisible in the data that drives our policy and our economy.
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CQR is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary learning community for research, education, and coordination around census data quality and fitness for use for three primary use cases: congressional apportionment, redistricting, and the distribution of federal funds. The CQR Task Force brings together a strong, united voice of civil society leaders, historians, statisticians, demographers, and others that is needed to ensure the Census Bureau can achieve the best possible, detailed enumeration of America’s population and safeguard the accuracy and quality of the Decennial Census and American Community Survey.
